Resumption of Quantitative Easing and the Recovery of Global Liquidity, When Is Bitcoin’s Upswing Likely?

Global liquidity is reemerging as a key variable for gauging the next trend reversal in Bitcoin’s price. In our analysis, today’s backdrop resembles a drama whose ending is already known: the phase of liquidity re-supply has begun, and the short-term dislocation created by an exogenous shock should ultimately resolve. For investors, the task is to confirm both the direction of liquidity and the timing of a recovery in market sentiment.

Global Liquidity: Signals and Interpretation of a Policy Shift

We assess that genuine quantitative easing has effectively started this month, supported by the possibility of fiscal stimulus in the United States, expectations for next‑year stimulus in Japan and China, and the prospect of replacing the Fed Chair with an ultra‑dovish appointee. These are forward‑looking views, and the specific scale and timing of each country’s policies may vary with official announcements.

The core point is straightforward. When policy stances tilt toward easing across major economies, global liquidity tends to increase in a directional way, which is typically constructive for risk assets. We already see upward pressure beginning to filter into equities and the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that a turn is underway after an extended period of range‑bound trading.

Bitcoin Cycle and the ‘Dislocation’ Thesis

We emphasize that Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle can operate in a self‑fulfilling manner. The external shock highlighted by the October 11 event dented investor sentiment and widened the dislocation between price and fundamental expectations. However, if liquidity inflows materialize and prices grind higher, improving investor sentiment could close that gap and accelerate the advance. In our interpretation, the current dislocation is a temporary byproduct of an incident; once the event is digested, the trend is likely to revert to its original trajectory.

Timing and Strategy: What to Monitor

There is no single, absolute catalyst that fixes the exact “timing” of an upswing, but the odds improve as several conditions align. As central banks’ liquidity supply signals are repeatedly confirmed, visibility into fiscal stimulus execution increases, and both the yield curve dynamics and U.S. dollar strength moderate, capital rotation into risk assets can accelerate. In this process, what matters more for Bitcoin than any specific price level is directionality and sentiment recovery, and it is prudent to verify the underlying liquidity trend.

From an investor’s perspective, it is reasonable to calibrate position management by monitoring liquidity indicators, the tone of policy communications, changes in order‑book liquidity, and signals of overheating or cooling in the derivatives market. Especially near the early phase of a cyclical turn higher, volatility events can occur more frequently, making it essential to pre‑define take‑profit and stop‑loss rules as part of disciplined risk management.

Risks and Considerations

Most policy‑related points discussed here are opinions and projections. In practice, policy delays, reduced program sizes, or unforeseen geopolitical developments could mean that liquidity expansion is gradual or limited. Likewise, Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle is a historical pattern, not a guarantee of future returns. A conservative approach—mindful of sharp moves around short‑term events—pairs staggered entries with clear loss‑limiting mechanisms.

Conclusion: The Crossroads of Liquidity Recovery and Dislocation Closure

We view global liquidity as entering a renewed expansion, and Bitcoin as well‑positioned to gain momentum while catching up to the price–expectations dislocation created by a one‑off incident. The key is the confirmation of timing at which policy‑driven liquidity, sentiment recovery, and the self‑fulfilling nature of the cycle intersect. Rather than relying on overconfidence, investors should validate bullish signals with data and policy cues while selectively pursuing opportunities.